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Arsenal Title Chances: What the Stats Say Mid‑Season

By on May 9, 2026

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Here we are again. Late April, the run-in, and Arsenal sit level on points with Manchester City after 33 games. If your heart rate spikes every time you check the table, you are not alone. Some fans distract themselves with a flutter on the JustCasino website just to cope with the tension. Can you blame them?

Where It Stands

After Match Day 33, Arsenal and Manchester City both sit on 70 points. The Gunners have 21 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses. City match that record exactly. Both sides share goal difference at +37. City tops the table because they have scored 66 goals to Arsenal’s 63. That three-goal margin is the only thing that separates first from second right now.

If that feels cruel, it gets tighter. City also hold the head-to-head advantage. They took four points from the two league meetings this season, which includes that 2-1 win at the Etihad on April 19. Arsenal only managed a 1-1 draw against them back in September. So if the teams finish level on points, goal difference, and goals scored, City win the title on head-to-head record alone. Arsenal cannot afford a tie.

The Numbers Behind the Story

Arsenal’s defensive record is the best in the league. They have conceded just 26 goals in 33 matches. Their expected goals against sit at 25.81, which means they have allowed exactly what the data predicts. The defense holds up.

The attack tells a different tale. Arsenal have scored 63 goals, which ranks second. But their expected goals tally is 57.49. That means they have outperformed their numbers by roughly five and a half goals. It hints the attack has squeezed out every last drop of quality. With five games left, you wonder if there is any juice left.

Recent form does not inspire confidence. Arsenal’s last five league results read LLWWW. Those back-to-back losses to Bournemouth and Manchester City came at the worst possible time. Before that, three straight wins against Brighton, Everton, and Aston Villa had looked like momentum fit for a title race. Now the question is whether Arteta’s squad can find that rhythm again.

The Run-In

Arsenal have five games left. Four of them come against sides in the bottom half. Newcastle visit the Emirates on April 25. Fulham follow on May 2. Then it is a trip to West Ham on May 10. Burnley visit on May 17. The season ends at Crystal Palace on May 24.

On paper, that is a kind schedule. But West Ham are desperate to avoid the drop and will treat that home fixture like a cup final. Palace on the final day is never easy, especially if something hangs in the balance.

The fixture list also lies. Arsenal face Atletico Madrid in the Champions League semi-finals on April 29 and May 5. Those two midweek ties will drain legs and focus. City have no such distraction. That matters.

So, Can Arsenal Actually Win This?

The honest answer is yes, but the path is narrow. Arsenal must win at least four of their final five games, and probably all five, to feel safe. Even then, City’s game in hand against Crystal Palace gives Guardiola’s side an extra bullet. The Premier League’s official breakdown of the title race makes it clear: if both teams win out, City take the crown on goals scored.

Arsenal must not only match City’s results but outscore them down the stretch. A 5-0 demolition of Burnley would help. So would a statement win against Newcastle this weekend. Goal difference heroics are not a strategy. They are a prayer.

Here is the truth that stings. Arsenal led this league since October. They built a nine-point advantage at one stage. Three consecutive second-place finishes weigh on this fanbase, and no English club has ever finished runner-up four years in a row. The numbers say Arsenal have a chance. They also say Arsenal need near-perfection and a little help.

Five games. That is all that remains. Make them count.