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Permutations: Find Out What Result Arsenal Need Against Napoli To Qualify

By on November 26, 2013

We beat Marseille with a comfortable 2-0 win on Tuesday night to leave us sitting top of Group F on 12 points.

However, with Borussia Dortmund easing to a 3-1 win over Napoli in the groups other fixture, it leaves the two other teams on 9 points and everything all to play for heading into the final round of games.

There is still the possibility that one of us, Napoli or Dortmund will not qualify with 12 points. Which will be absolutely insane. Particularly when you consider the groups whipping boys – Marseille – actually came from pot 2 in the draw.

We are in pole position, with a 3 point lead over our rivals, but the job is not yet done. So what do we want from the game against Napoli? Here are the possible outcomes:

(All of the below is based on the assumption Dortmund will beat Marseille away from home)

Arsenal win – We qualify top of the group

Draw – We qualify top of the group

Napoli win – Now this is where it gets slightly complicated. If we lose by a three-goal margin, we will finish third in the table if Dortmund beat Marseille. In the scenario of all 3 teams ending on 12 points it’s decided by who has the best goal difference in the games between Arsenal, Napoli and Dortmund. This currently stands at: Arsenal +2, Dortmund +1, Napoli -3. Therefore, Napoli need to win by three clear goals and any other defeat for Arsenal by just 1 or 2 goals will see us qualify.

Dortmund will be guaranteed to qualify if they beat Marseille – which lets face it they are going to do as the French outfit are awful.

So the job is simple. Win or draw to top the group, or worst case is lose by up to two goals to guarantee qualification.

It’s set up to be a tense evening but it looks like it’s between us or Napoli for the final spot as Dortmund are huge favourites to beat Marseille, so we need to prove we deserve to be in the draw for the knockout stages ahead of the Italians.

Do you think we’ll get the job done? Or will we suffer a final game collapse?

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